What does the Irish backstop mean for us students?

The Northern Ireland Protocol refers to the regulatory border in the Irish Sea which acts as the de facto UK/EU border. It was agreed in 2019 as part of a post-Brexit deal, but has since become a legal quandary and a source of geopolitical contention. The aim of the protocol is to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, with there being no checks on goods crossing the border between our two countries. The Good Friday Agreement, signed during Tony Blair’s premiership in 1998, formally brought an end to the ‘Troubles’, and mapped out the route for Northern Ireland’s devolved system of government (which is in place today). While it has been heralded as drawing a close to decades of violent conflict, the religious divide between Protestantism and Catholicism is still evident.

Religion plays a major role in Northern Irish politics. In the 2011 Census, it was revealed that 48% of Northern Ireland’s population identified as Protestant, while 45% labelled themselves as Catholic. Consequently, a 2016 study by Prof. John Garry found there was a strong ethno-national basis to voting in the Brexit election, in which 85% of Catholics voted to stay in the EU compared to 40% of Protestants. These statistics aid understanding of the mounting tensions, which have arisen over the last week over election results.

On 5th May 2022, voters elected 90 members to the Northern Ireland Assembly, in which the Irish Nationalist Party Sein Féin became the largest for the first time, winning 29% of the vote share and 27 seats. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) lost three seats, relegating them to second largest party with 25 seats. This election enables Sein Féin to nominate a First Minister. However, the DUP has refused to allow the formation of a new government until there are significant changes to the Brexit deal, which could destabilise the current power-sharing model and have wider ramifications for social relations. In February, the DUP First Minister, Paul Givan, resigned in protest. He stated that “the delicate balance created by the Belfast and St Andrew's Agreements has been impacted by the agreement made by the United Kingdom and the European Union, which created the Northern Ireland Protocol.”

The Protocol is viewed by the DUP as undermining Northern Ireland’s place within the United Kingdom, and as therefore a threat to unionism. The reality of the divorce deal, following the recent elections, has seen the polarisation of parties and political deadlock. Sein Féin endorses the Protocol, with the Vice President, Michelle O’Neil, stating that “it’s here to stay.” Queen’s University Belfast runs a project, ‘Post Brexit Governance NI’ which gauges public opinion through surveys and has exemplified that strongly Nationalist ideology leans in favour for the Protocol, while strongly Unionist ideology is staunch in its opposition. With Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP looking towards a future referendum on Scottish Independence, following their success in local elections, the issue of the Protocol raises questions over the current state of solidity in the union.

Written by Suleiman Mushtaq